Core Issue: Between late 2020 and late 2024, the supply of long-term rental housing in Spain plummeted by 56% (over 201,000 units, data from idealista). This drastic decline coincides with surging demand and record-high prices, making it increasingly difficult for families to secure permanent housing.
Dispelling the Tourist Apartment Myth: Short-term (temporary) and tourist rentals are often blamed. However, data reveals their limited role:
- Short-Term Rentals: Increased by 41% (+7,510 units).
- Tourist Apartments (AirDNA): Grew by 30% (+85,600 units).
Even if *all* units lost from the long-term market switched exclusively to these sectors, it would only account for 46% of the loss. The fate of the remaining 54% (over 108,000 units) is unaccounted for.
The Primary Driver: Legal Uncertainty. Policy interventions in recent years have created a hostile climate for landlords:
1. Urban Leases Act (LAU) Reforms (2019): Increased contract regulation.
2. Eviction Ban for Vulnerable Tenants: Implemented during the pandemic and extended.
3. Rent Increase Caps (2022): Initially linked to the Ukraine war, later pegged to indexes below inflation.
4. Housing Law (2023): Introduction of "Stressed Market Areas" with price ceilings on new rentals.
These measures, intended to boost supply and moderate prices, have backfired: supply has shrunk amidst growing demand.
Where Did the Supply Go? Facing uncertainty, owners are opting for alternatives:
1. Sales: The residential sales market has boomed post-pandemic (exceeding 600,000 transactions annually, MIVAU data). A significant portion of former rental stock has likely been sold.
2. Vacant Housing: Owners are withdrawing properties from the market awaiting stability (e.g., 97,000 vacant units in Madrid, 36,300 in Valencia).
3. Tourist/Short-Term Rentals: A contributing factor, but not the primary cause of the core crisis.
Situation in Major Cities (2020-2024):
- Madrid: Loss of -57,500 long-term units. Short-term (+200) and tourist (+7,500) rentals explain only 13.4% of the loss. Record sales and 97,000 vacant units.
- Valencia: 63% decline (-~10,000 units). Short-term and tourist rentals (+~3,600) explain 35%. 36,300 vacant units.
- Malaga: Loss of ~7,000 units. Short-term and tourist rentals (+~3,670) explain 52%. Rising sales, 6.3% vacant housing stock.
The long-term rental crisis is multi-faceted. While the growth of tourist/short-term rentals is one element, evidence strongly suggests that the primary deterrent for landlords is the legal uncertainty stemming from regulatory intervention. Public authorities at all levels (Article 47, Spanish Constitution) face the challenge of ensuring the right to housing through efficient measures that restore confidence in the long-term rental market and holistically address the root causes of supply shortage.