By the end of 2025, the housing situation in Spain is, quite simply, a national emergency. There is a housing shortage everywhere. It's already a chronic problem. But instead of focusing on the root of the problem—the lack of supply—the political debate remains obsessed with controlling prices. Everything is so polarized that it's difficult to envision a way out. We've been stuck in this loop for years. A real change is needed: listening to the experts, using the data, and setting aside ideological rhetoric. Frankly, it's hard to see how we're going to undo what's already been done. The measures announced recently only reinforce the same mistake.
The problem isn't just political; it also affects how we talk about the issue. Housing is living in a kind of "post-truth" bubble. Even institutions are questioning the reliability of the data, precisely when the numbers show that the policies implemented aren't working, or are even doing more harm than good.
Legislative uncertainty doesn't help either. There are no minimum agreements, making it impossible to pass laws that facilitate access to housing. If nothing changes, by 2026 everything points to us being in the same situation, or worse: rising prices, both for buying and renting, and fewer and fewer homes available in both markets.
Rentals
The rental market is at its limit, almost in a state of catastrophe. For years we've been passing laws intended to protect tenants with contracts, but at the same time, they've left out those looking for a home. Even those who feel secure now will have to return to the market when their contracts expire and will realize how difficult everything is. The imbalance between landlords and tenants is worsening. Thousands of apartments are disappearing from the rental market—many are being sold—and this means the problem is no longer just the price, but the sheer impossibility of renting, even if you have the money to pay.
Interestingly, the political deadlock has stalled new laws that would have further complicated the rental market, which has partly prevented even greater problems. But, since everything depends on parliamentary arithmetic, there are no guarantees that some of these proposals won't be revived at any moment.
By 2026, we'll see prices stabilize in areas with legal limits, while they continue to rise where there are no controls. The problem is that those looking for a home pay the price for these controls: less supply, harsher conditions. The market becomes a kind of battleground for tenants: some benefit from the restrictions on landlords, but others can't even find a place to rent.
And here lies the true tragedy of renting in Spain. Finding an apartment has become a free-for-all. More than 50 people compete for each listing on Idealista. And it's not just the price: a "casting call" begins with each rental, and only the most reliable profile is chosen. The rest keep searching, entering a cycle of selections where there's always someone offering more guarantees. Families with children, elderly relatives, single parents, or those with a single income find it nearly impossible. They'll usually never be the chosen ones.
With so many applicants, landlords choose those who offer the greatest security of payment—and many tenants meet financial requirements far exceeding the legal minimum. The result: the rental market becomes more elitist. The fewer tenants available, the harder it is to meet the required profile. Many people who previously had no problem renting are now excluded. Ultimately, laws designed to protect the most vulnerable first drove them out of the market, then those who could become vulnerable, and now exclude entire groups.
Housing Sales
Housing prices are set to close the year with an increase of more than 15% compared to last year. Madrid and Valencia are leading the rise, well above the national average. Barcelona is in a different league: there, prices are only rising by single digits because they have compensated for the lack of supply with properties that were previously for rent.
Demand falls almost entirely on the existing housing market, but this has long since ceased to be sufficient. Around 100,000 new homes are built each year, but if you look at sales data, most of the houses sold are from the rental market. This strategy has an expiration date. The stock of rental housing continues to decline, and if something doesn't change, maintaining the pace of sales will be nearly impossible. We need to see cranes back in many cities. We must stop demonizing construction and put an end to the political noise that is blocking key reforms, such as the Land Law, which would accelerate the creation of new housing. Nor can we ignore the shortage of skilled labor. The sector needs bold policies to attract and train the necessary workers.
Purchase demand is sky-high, but record prices are pricing many families out of the market. While obtaining financing is reasonable, the problem is that it requires savings that are beyond the reach of most. Even so, the gap between supply and demand is so large that, even if some demand withdraws, prices aren't going to fall. At most, the rate of increase will slow slightly.
Furthermore, prices are rising much faster than family incomes. Buying a home requires increasingly more effort, and in major markets, the limits recommended by financial experts are already being exceeded.
Home Purchases
Sales are at an all-time high, exceeding 700,000 units sold, but a slowdown has been noticeable in recent months. The main reason is the high price and the lack of available housing. Maintaining this pace in the coming quarters seems difficult. The market is most likely to stabilize, primarily at the expense of long-term, seasonal, and vacation rentals, which will have a significant impact on these segments.
Mortgages
Unlike 2024, mortgage lending started the year strong but then lost momentum. The environment has been favorable, with low interest rates and high employment, so demand and banks' willingness to lend have been high. Competition among banks has led to offers below the cost of money: fixed rates below 2% and mixed rates below 1.5% for the initial fixed portion. In this environment, variable-rate mortgages have almost completely disappeared, and mortgage transfers have also decreased considerably after the boom in bank switching in 2023 and early 2024.
Looking ahead to 2026, everything points to the mortgage market remaining stable. Banks will continue to launch aggressive offers, although perhaps somewhat less affordable. We'll need to keep a close eye on housing prices, the economy, and unemployment, as these are the biggest risks for next year. While 2026 won't be as spectacular as 2025, all indications are that it will still be a good year for the mortgage market.
In short, 2026 looks set to be a year of continuity: rising prices, strong demand, limited supply, and a public debate more focused on assigning blame than on finding real solutions.